Often,\u00a0 giving people\u00a0 a\u00a0 reason to think\u00a0 or\u00a0 act in\u00a0 a certain way is\u00a0 one\u00a0 of the most powerful tools\u00a0 one can\u00a0 employ. The hope\u00a0 of those concerned about climate change is that these reasons can be mutually communicated and agreed at the Conference of the Parties (to the UNFCCC) in Paris later this year.<\/p>\n
Indeed,\u00a0 the\u00a0 text\u00a0 of\u00a0 the\u00a0 communique\u00a0 resulting\u00a0 from\u00a0 COP\u00a0 20\u00a0 in\u00a0 Lima\u00a0 last\u00a0 year\u00a0 talked\u00a0 of \u201ccommon\u00a0 and\u00a0 differentiated\u201dresponsibilities, and targets, reflecting \u201cdifferent national circumstances\u201d, as key to future discussions. So whether reductions in emissions be achieved via in-country policies, such as taxes, or by a global carbon trading scheme, answering the question as to who should pay more or less, is potentially very important.<\/p>\n
Implicit\u00a0 in the\u00a0 assumption\u00a0 that\u00a0 present\u00a0 day\u00a0 populations\u00a0 should\u00a0 bear\u00a0 a\u00a0 cost\u00a0 for\u00a0 the\u00a0 emissions\u00a0 of\u00a0 their ancestors\u00a0 is\u00a0 the\u00a0 idea\u00a0 t hey\u00a0 have\u00a0 benefitted\u00a0 from\u00a0 those emissions. After all, only a certain portion of historic emissions have actually been directly made by populations alive today.<\/p>\n
So\u00a0 the\u00a0 most\u00a0 obvious\u00a0 candidate\u00a0 to\u00a0 distribute\u00a0 the\u00a0 costs\u00a0 involved\u00a0 would\u00a0 be\u00a0 historic\u00a0 emissions\u00a0 of\u00a0 a\u00a0 nation\u00a0 divided\u00a0 by\u00a0 the\u00a0 present\u00a0 day\u00a0 population\u00a0 size\u00a0 of\u00a0 thatnation. A\u00a0 discount\u00a0 factor could be\u00a0 applied, looking\u00a0 back\u00a0 over time, in\u00a0 order to\u00a0 sum historic\u00a0 emissions together\u00a0 and bring them to\u00a0 a present\u00a0 day\u00a0 total.\u00a0\u00a0 This discounting could, in theory, link the \u2018 responsibility\u2019\u00a0 attached to\u00a0 emissions to the improvement in\u00a0 understanding\u00a0 of climate change which\u00a0 has\u00a0 occurred\u00a0 over time.<\/p>\n
However,\u00a0 natural capital\u00a0 (such\u00a0 as\u00a0 fossil fuels) is not\u00a0 always converted successfully into\u00a0 other, long-term income yielding\u00a0 forms\u00a0 of capital\u00a0 such\u00a0 as legal\u00a0 and educational\u00a0 institutions.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 It\u00a0 seems\u00a0 unlikely\u00a0 that\u00a0 accounting\u00a0 for\u00a0 variation\u00a0 in\u00a0 nations\u2019\u00a0\u00a0 relative\u00a0 success\u00a0 or\u00a0 failure\u00a0 in\u00a0 this\u00a0 capital-conversion\u00a0 task\u00a0 (known\u00a0 to economists\u00a0 as \u2018 genuine\u00a0 savings\u2019 ) should,\u00a0 or\u00a0 even\u00a0 could,\u00a0 be\u00a0 fully\u00a0 accounted\u00a0 for\u00a0 in\u00a0 answering\u00a0 the\u00a0 question\u00a0 as\u00a0 to\u00a0 who\u00a0 should\u00a0 pay\u00a0 for\u00a0 climate\u00a0 change\u00a0 today.\u00a0 Nevertheless\u00a0 one might\u00a0 at least\u00a0 expect those countries where\u00a0 economic benefits had\u00a0 not\u00a0 really\u00a0 been\u00a0 felt to\u00a0 argue in\u00a0 favour\u00a0 of this theoretical link between benefit from and responsibility\u00a0 for historic\u00a0 emissions.One might argue that\u00a0 a simple discount rate\u00a0 applied to\u00a0 all\u00a0 historic emissions\u00a0 account s for the fact the conversion is not always 100%.<\/p>\n
Working\u00a0 against\u00a0 historic\u00a0 discounting\u00a0 of\u00a0 emissions, however,\u00a0 might\u00a0 be\u00a0 the\u00a0 longer\u00a0 atmospheric\u00a0 residence time\u00a0 of\u00a0 emissions\u00a0 made\u00a0 further\u00a0 back\u00a0 in\u00a0 time.\u00a0 The calculation would also have to take into account that of historic emissions (of CO2 anyway), roughly 50% have so far been absorbed by the planet\u2019 s oceans and terrestrial ecosystems.<\/p>\n
This present-day divvying-up of \u2018 responsibility\u2019\u00a0 could be combined with short term per-capita projections of actual costs to reduce carbon (marginal abatement curves), for specific countries, in some kind of purchasing-power-parity terms, to arrive at a near-term target for each nation.<\/p>\n
If a global carbon budget could be agreed, out to a future point in time where there are zero emissions, then the correct relative allocation in costs, out to the same point in time, could reasonably be projected as well, given emissions and population size are reasonably foreseeable.\u00a0 However, the missing knowledge would be the economic cost to each nation of a given reduction, per unit of carbon, at a given point in the future, because this is highly dependent on alternate fossil fuel prices, and innovations that will have occurred.\u00a0 These future carbon abatement curves would therefore be needed, in theory, to arrive at long term carbon targets.<\/p>\n
One\u00a0 might\u00a0 hope,\u00a0 however,\u00a0 that\u00a0 reasonable\u00a0 assumptions\u00a0 could\u00a0 be\u00a0 made\u00a0 in\u00a0 this\u00a0 area,\u00a0 so\u00a0 as\u00a0 to\u00a0 achieve\u00a0 sufficient\u00a0 confidence\u00a0 in\u00a0 the long\u00a0 term\u00a0 scheme\u00a0 (any confidence\u00a0 would\u00a0 be\u00a0 nice),\u00a0 and\u00a0 that\u00a0 firm\u00a0 targets\u00a0 for\u00a0 the\u00a0 short\u00a0 term\u00a0 could\u00a0 be\u00a0 accompanied\u00a0 by\u00a0 indicative\u00a0 goals\u00a0 beyond.\u00a0 A\u00a0 mechanism\u00a0 of\u00a0 looking\u00a0 forwards\u00a0 at regular periods\u00a0 of time to\u00a0 divvy up\u00a0 short term costs,\u00a0 so\u00a0 as to stay within the\u00a0 original carbon budget set, whatever the total\u00a0 of those short term costs might come to, would be the obvious way to address this issue.\u00a0 I understand such a mechanism is under discussion.<\/p>\n
If\u00a0 all\u00a0 this,\u00a0 in\u00a0 terms\u00a0 of\u00a0 numbers\u00a0 and\u00a0 analysis\u00a0 feeding\u00a0 into\u00a0 discussions,\u00a0 is\u00a0 too\u00a0 much\u00a0 to\u00a0 hope\u00a0 for\u00a0 in\u00a0 Paris,\u00a0 what\u00a0 can\u00a0 at\u00a0 least\u00a0 b e\u00a0 hoped\u00a0 for\u00a0 is\u00a0 a\u00a0 universal appreciation of the principles involved, and that a similar outcome might be replicated by an iterative process of target -pledging.\u00a0 There is certainly hope.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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